Kusukela phakathiNgoDisemba, kube nokukhuphuka okukhulu kwamanani e-aluminium, njengoba i-aluminium yase-Shanghai iphinde yakhuphuka cishe ngo-8.6% isuka kwephansi engu-18,190 yuan/ton, futhi
I-aluminium ye-LME ikhuphuka isuka kokuphezulu okungu-2,109 US dollar/ton kuya ku-2,400 US dollars/ton.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, lokhu kungenxa yombono wokuhweba emakethe onethemba
mayelana nokuncishiswa kwezinga lenzalo yase-US Federal Reserve, futhi ngakolunye uhlangothi, kube nokukhuphuka okukhulu ngenxa yokwenyuka kwezindleko zokuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa kwe-alumina okuhlanganiswe yinkinga yoLwandle Olubomvu.Lokhu kukhuphuka kwe-aluminium yase-Shanghai kwephule ukushintshashintsha
ububanzi bakheke ngaphezu konyaka, ne-aluminium ye-LME ebonisa ubuthakathaka obuningi ngokuqhathaniswa.Ngesonto eledlule, njengoba abanye abakhiqizi be-alumina baphinde baqala kabusha
ukukhiqizwa, ukunciphisa ukukhathazeka kokuhlinzekwa, kokubili amanani e-alumina ne-aluminium athole ukuhoxiswa okuncane.
1. Ukushoda Kokunikezela Ngensimbi Ye-Bauxite Kusazokhawulela Ukukhishwa Kwekhono Lokukhiqiza kwe-Alumina
Mayelana ne-bauxite ore yasekhaya, amazinga okusebenza ezimayini aphansi ngokwemvelo ebusika.Ingozi yasemayini eShanxi ekupheleni konyaka odlule iholele ekutheni izimayini eziningi zendawo zimiswe
ukukhiqizwa ukuze kuhlolwe futhi kulungiswe, ngaphandle kokulindela ukuqaliswa kabusha esikhathini esifushane.Imayini ye-Sanmenxia e-Henan nayo ayizange ibike ukuqala kabusha, nge
ukwehla kokukhishwa kwe-ore e-Pingdingshan.Zimbalwa izimayini ezintsha ezivulwe eGuizhou, kanti ukunikezwa kwe-bauxite ore kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale kuqinile isikhathi eside, okuzosekela kakhulu amanani entengo ye-alumina.Mayelana ne-ore engenisiwe, umthelela we-
ukushoda kokunikezwa kukaphethiloli ngenxa yokuqhuma kwedepho kawoyela yaseGuinea kuyaqhubeka, kubonakala ikakhulukazi ekukhuphukeni kwezindleko zikaphethiloli ezinkampanini zezimayini kanye nokukhuphuka kwamazinga okuthutha olwandle.
Njengamanje, yisikhathi esiphezulu sokuthunyelwa kwe-ore yaseGuinea.Ngokusho kweSMM, ukuthunyelwa kwe-alumina ore ngesonto eledlule kusuka eGuinea kufinyelele amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.2555,
ukwanda ngamathani angu-392,900 kusukela emathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.8626 wesonto eledlule.Isimo esishubile oLwandle Olubomvu sinomthelela olinganiselwe ekuthuthweni kwe-alumina ore,
njengoba cishe amaphesenti angamashumi ayisikhombisa e-alumina ore yaseChina evela eGuinea, futhi impahla evela eGuinea nase-Australia ayidluli oLwandle Olubomvu.
Umthelela ungase uzwakale engxenyeni encane yokuthutha i-alumina ore esuka eTurkey.
iphrofayili ye-aluminiumNgenxa yokushoda kokuhlinzekwa kwe-alumina ore kanye nemikhawulo yokukhiqizwa kwemvelo, kube nokwehla okukhulu kwamandla okukhiqiza i-alumina phambilini.Ngokusho kuka-Aladdin, kusukela ngoLwesihlanu olwedlule, amandla okusebenza kwe-alumina ayengamathani ayizigidi ezingu-81.35, ngezinga lokusebenza lika-78.7%, eliphansi ngokuphawulekayo kunebanga elivamile lamathani ayizigidi ezingu-84-87 engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka.Izintengo ze-alumina zikhuphukile kanye nezintengo zesikhathi esizayo.NgoLwesihlanu olwedlule, intengo yendawo esifundeni sase-Henan ibingu-3,320 yuan/ton, ikhuphuke ngo-190 yuan/ton kusukela ngesonto eledlule.Izintengo ze-Spot esifundeni sase-Shanxi zikhuphuke ngo-180 yuan zaya ku-3,330 yuan/ton uma kuqhathaniswa neviki eledlule.Ngesonto eledlule, ngezinga lomoya elithuthukisiwe kwezinye izingxenye zaseShandong naseHenan kanye nokuphakanyiswa kwezixwayiso zesimo sezulu esinzima sokungcola, izinkampani ezimbalwa ze-alumina ziphinde zaqala kabusha ukukhiqiza, eziningi zazo okuyimikhiqizo etholakalayo ukulethwa.Inkampani enkulu esifundeni saseShanxi eyehlise umthamo wayo wokukhiqiza ngenxa yezinkinga zokubala nayo iqala kabusha ukukhiqiza, kanye nezinye izinkampani, okuphakamisa ukuthi isimo esiqinile sezimpahla ze-alumina spot ngesikhathi esifushane singase sibe ngcono.Kodwa-ke, inkinga yokungatholakali kwe-ore enganele kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokuhlinzeka ngosizo lwamanani e-alumina esikhathini esimaphakathi.
2. Izindleko Ezenyukile Nenzuzo Ye-Aluminium Electrolysis
Mayelana nezindleko ze-aluminium electrolysis, ngaphandle kokukhuphuka okuphawulekayo kwamanani e-alumina, amanani kagesi ne-caustic soda ahlala ezinzile.Ekuqaleni kwenyanga, ibhizinisi lasekhaya elaziwayo lehlise kakhulu inani lebhidi le-aluminium fluoride, okuholele ekwehleni kwezintengo zokuthengiselana emakethe ye-aluminium fluoride.Sekukonke, i-SMM ilinganisele ukuthi ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, inani lezindleko ze-aluminium electrolysis lafinyelela cishe amayuan ayi-16,600 ngethani, lenyuka ngamayuan angama-320 ngethani lisuka cishe kumayuan ayi-16,280 ngethani maphakathi noZibandlela wonyaka odlule.Ngokukhuphuka kanyekanye kwentengo ye-aluminium electrolysis, inzuzo yamabhizinisi e-electrolytic aluminium nayo ibone ukwenyuka okuthile.
3. Ukuncipha Okuncane Kokukhiqizwa Kwe-Aluminium Electrolysis kanye Namazinga Aphansi Wokusungula
Ngokusho kweNational Bureau of Statistics, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2023, ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic yaseChina kwaba amathani ayizigidi ezingama-38, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-3.9%.Umkhiqizo ngoNovemba wehle kancane wafinyelela kumathani ayizigidi ezi-3.544, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuvinjwa kukagesi esifundeni saseYunnan.Njengoba kubika i-Mysteel, ekupheleni kukaNovemba, umthamo we-aluminium electrolytic eyakhiwe eChina wawungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-45.0385, amandla okusebenza angamathani ayizigidi ezingu-42.0975 kanye nezinga lokusebenzisa amandla angu-93.47%, ukwehla ngo-2.62% inyanga nenyanga.NgoNovemba, i-aluminiyamu eluhlaza engeniswe eChina yayingamathani ayi-194,000, ngaphansi kancane kuno-Okthoba, kodwa isasezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu.
Kusukela ngomhla ka-5 Januwari, i-aluminiyamu yokusungula i-Shanghai Futures Exchange yayingamathani angu-96,637, iqhubeka nokwehla futhi ihlale isezingeni eliphansi uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo eminyakeni edlule.Umthamo we-warrant wawungamathani angu-38,917, ohlinzeka ngokusekela okuthile kwamanani esikhathi esizayo.Kusukela ngoJanuwari 4, i-Mysteel ibike ukuthi i-inventory social ye-aluminium electrolytic yayingamathani angu-446,000, amathani ayizinkulungwane ezingu-11.3 ngaphansi kwenkathi efanayo ngonyaka odlule, okubonisa ukuthi ukujikeleza kwendawo yonke yasekhaya kuhlala kuqinile.Uma kubhekwa ukusebenza okuntekenteke komfula ngaphambi koMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo kanye nokwehla okulindelekile kwezinga lokuguqulwa kwamanzi e-aluminium ngamabhizinisi e-electrolytic aluminium, i-inventory ye-aluminium ingot ingase isheshise engxenyeni yesibili kaJanuwari.Ngomhla zi-5 kuMasingana, iqoqo le-aluminium ye-LME lime kumathani angu-558,200, likhuphuke kancane lisuka maphakathi no-December liphansi, kodwa lisezingeni eliphansi lilonke, liphakeme kancane kunesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule.Ivolumu yamarisidi esitolo esibhalisiwe yayingamathani angu-374,300, nejubane lokutakula ngokushesha.Inkontileka yendawo ye-aluminium ye-LME ibone i-contango encane, okubonisa ukuthi ukunikezwa kwendawo akuzange kubonise ukuqina okukhulu.
4. Umkhuba Wesidingo Owenza Buthaka Ngaphambi Konyaka Omusha WaseShayina
Ngokusho kwe-SMM, ngemva koSuku LweNcibijane, i-aluminum billet yangena esigqini sokuqongelela ngokushesha.Kusukela ngomhlaka-4 kuMasingana, i-aluminiyamu ye-social rod yasekhaya ifinyelele amathani angama-82,000, okuwukunyuka kwamathani ayi-17,900 uma kuqhathaniswa noLwesine olwedlule.Ukufika okugxilile kwezimpahla ngesikhathi samaholide, ukuba buthaka ukusebenza komfula ngaphambi koNyaka Omusha WaseShayina, kanye nezinga eliphezulu lamanani e-aluminium acindezele ukuthengwa komfula, kwakuyizizathu eziyinhloko zokukhula kwempahla.Ngesonto lokuqala lika-2024, izinga lokusebenza kwamabhizinisi asekhaya ahamba phambili e-aluminium aqhubeka nokuba buthaka, ku-52.7%, nokwehla kwesonto nesonto ngo-2.1%.Amanye amanani okukhiqizwa kwephrofayili yokwakha nama-oda enqatshiwe, kuyilapho amabhizinisi ahamba phambili ephrofayili yezimoto ahlala emazingeni aphezulu okusebenza.Imakethe yephrofayili ye-photovoltaic ibhekane nokuncintisana okuqinisiwe, namavolumu ama-oda nawo ehlile.Ngokombono wetheminali, ukwehla okwandayo konyaka nonyaka endaweni entsha yokwakha kanye nendawo yokwakha kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba kubonise ukuthuthukiswa okuncane, kodwa isimo sokuthengisa ezingeni lokugcina labathengi sahlala sibuthakathaka.NgoNovemba 2023, ukukhiqizwa nokudayiswa kwezimoto zaseChina kuqede izigidi ezingu-3.093 kanye namayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-2.97, ngokulandelana, kubhaliswa ukukhuphuka konyaka ngo-29.4% no-27.4%, okubonisa izinga lokukhula ngokushesha.
5. Imvelo Emaphakathi Yomnotho Wangaphandle Emaphakathi
I-Federal Reserve igcine isilinganiso senzalo sebhentshimakhi singashintshiwe phakathi nomhlangano wango-December, lapho u-Powell ekhipha amasiginali ashubile, esho ukuthi i-Federal Reserve icubungula futhi ixoxa ngokuncishiswa kwezinga lenzalo okufanele, kanye nokwenzeka kokwehliswa kwezinga sekucatshangelwe.Njengoba okulindelekile ekuncishisweni kwamanani kuqina, isimo semakethe sihlala sinethemba uma kuqhathaniswa, futhi azikho izici ezibalulekile ezingezinhle zezomnotho omkhulu ezilindelekile esikhathini esifushane.Inkomba yedola laseMelika yehle yaba ngaphansi kwe-101, futhi isivuno sebhondi yase-US nayo yehla.Amaminithi omhlangano wangoZibandlela ashicilelwe kamuva awazange abe manqikanqika njengemizwa yomhlangano odlule, futhi imininingwane emihle yokuqashwa kwabantu okungewona amapulazi ngoDisemba nayo yasekela umbono wokuthi inqubomgomo yezimali evimbelayo izoqhubeka isikhathi eside.Kodwa-ke, lokhu akuvimbeli ukulindela okuyisisekelo kokuncishiswa kwamanani okuthathu ngo-2024. Ngaphambi Konyaka Omusha WaseShayina, ukwehla okungazelelwe komnotho omkhulu mancane amathuba okuthi kwenzeke.I-PMI yokukhiqiza yaseShayina ngoDisemba yehle ngo-0.4% yaya ku-49%, okubonisa ukuncipha kwezinkomba zokukhiqiza nezidingo.Phakathi kwazo, inkomba yama-oda amasha yehle ngo-0.7% yaya ku-48.7%, okubonisa ukuthi isisekelo sokusimama komnotho wasekhaya sisadinga ukuqiniswa.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-22-2024